The second week of August has had bitcoin investors seeing some volatility after the SEC has delayed their decision regarding one of the Bitcoin ETF’s. I see the drop to $6,100 on August 8th as an overreaction by the market. When you look at things from the hour to hour view like many in the cryptoshere do, you hear a lot of doom, gloom and panic. Investors are looking at Bitcoin ETF’s as the saving grace for this current bear market. It’s not necessarily if an ETF will be approved, it’s when. Below are the key upcoming dates (should there be no more delays).
- August 23 – Two funds from ProShares
- September 15 – Two funds from GraniteShares
- September 21 – Four funds from Direxion
- September 30 – VanEck-SolidX fund
As an analyst at bitcoin.live we put out weekly discussions and content. Alongside myself and five other analysts, there are long time traders like Peter Brandt (40+ years successful trading experience). One thing we both stressed to members this week was to zoom out and look at the overall market. The fundamentals of bitcoin haven’t gotten worse, they have gotten better. There are more layers of technology being improved all the time (i.e, lightning network). The amount of hashing power on bitcoins blockchain is at an all-time high.
One thought that’s been resonating with me lately is no one wants to talk, work, or research during a bear market. People walk away and shut their eyes. The hard part for most is putting the work in when things are toughest. That’s how you make money. You buy when there is fear or despair. Then when things turn to euphoria, and nothing can go wrong that’s when you start to take profits off the table. Rinse and repeat. Instead the public starts to FOMO (fear of missing out) when they see a large price jump. They do this for every trading asset. They knew they originally wanted to buy bitcoin but, in the end, they just pay higher prices for their bitcoins. It’s happened before and it’ll happen again. During the bearish times is the time to do the executing, to invest in yourself and start to lay your bricks. It is how you build for the future.
Excluding the bear market after the collapse of Mt. Gox (which lasted 3.25 years) the average bear market lasted roughly 11 months. It’s been over 8 months since the all-time high. We are closer to the bottom and if price can hold the $5,777 level I think todays investors will be fruitfully rewarded in the coming months. If that price is violated I can see this bear market lasting another couple of months before the trend reverses.
See chart below for key price and trade analysis: